🚿 & 🙏 — Spray & Pray

Durante el siglo XX el mundo estuvo bajo el paradigma de la producción en masa. Lo importante era ser eficiente y trabajar duro. El siglo XXI nos trajo la economía de la información. Ahora lo importante es aplicar el conocimiento para agregar valor. Más que el trabajo duro, el éxito se consigue con el trabajo inteligente.

Este resumen es extremadamente sencillo, pero en general adecuado.

El punto es que muchas industrias han adoptado el paradigma del trabajo inteligente casi como una obligación, y no siempre lo aplican con buen criterio.

Por regla general podemos decir que importa más la calidad que la cantidad.

Hace poco Patrick Ryan, co fundador de Odin, publicó un artículo resaltando algunas de las conclusiones de una investigación realizada por Steve Crossan en 2018 y agregando algunos datos propios.

He considerado importante resaltar los puntos más destacados de lo postulado en estos textos porque suponen una crítica interesante al modelo con el que operan los fondos de Venture Capital.

Aumentando el portfolio

Los fondos de Venture Capital tienen en promedio de unas 15 a 25 inversiones en sus portfolios. Según Crossan deberían tener 150 como mínimo, pero se recomienda llegar a las 300.

La diferencia es notable hasta el punto que parece ir en contra del modelo de los VC. Si hay que agregar tantas inversiones entonces lo lógico es suponer que en cierto punto estamos sumando tratos de menor valor.

Y si nos guiamos por cierto sentido común esto es cierto.

Sin embargo, en las simulaciones realizadas se han advertido dos beneficios notables:

Reducción de las posibilidades de pérdida

Con una inversión de solo 5 empresas la posibilidad de perder dinero es del 40%. Cuando superas la marca de las 30 inversiones la posibilidad de perder dinero pasa de un 10% hasta casi un 0% conforme se suman empresas. Aunque las variaciones son menores luego de las 100 empresas.

Aumento de las posibilidades de mayores retornos

Con un portfolio de 300 empresas las chances de obtener retornos del cuádruple o el quíntuple de lo invertido son un 80% mayores. La posibilidad de obtener múltiplos superiores a 10 no disminuye.

Los fondos de Venture Capital tienen razones que la razón ignora

Al preguntarse sobre las razones de por las que los VC no adoptan una estrategia de inversión similar a la indexación surgen dos factores claves. Uno de ellos podríamos decir que es cultural y el otro práctico.

Va contra la premisa de lo que es un VC. Como hemos señalado en otra ocasión, la capacidad para realizar una adecuada selección es uno de los factores claves que distinguen a una firma de otra.

Un mayor número de empresas en un portfolio puede ser percibido como una menor cantidad de trabajo o valor aplicados en la selección. Decimos que la calidad es mejor que la cantidad. Pero el trabajo realizado demuestra que a veces se necesita más cantidad para obtener esa calidad. Cabe recordar que aún en el caso de los actuales portfolios, la mayor parte del retorno proviene de unas pocas empresas.

Es importante notar que para una reducida cantidad de compañías este modelo con un portfolio reducido parece funcionar bien. Estas empresas son las que actúan como entes aspiracionales y marcan el modelo a seguir. Un modelo que no funciona tan bien para el resto. Ryan cree que la insistencia de muchas empresas en este modelo es en parte una cuestión de ego.

En lo que se refiere al aspecto práctico Crossan advierte algunas falencias.

El modelo no considera la participación de varios VC en el mercado.
Supone un rendimiento del sector que puede no ser tan bueno en la realidad.
A esto hay que agregar que con unas 150 o 300 empresas el nivel del manejo del porfolio como la ayuda que la empresa puede ofrecer a las empresas será mucho más limitado.

Inteligencia y automatización

Crossan trabajó en el área de producto de DeepMind. Actualmente se desempeña como consultor en IA y tecnologías relacionadas. Obviamente el modelo al que apuntan sus conclusiones no es contrario al de la economía del conocimiento.

Pero sí es uno que parece necesitar herramientas más avanzadas para el análisis automatizado. Y la aplicación de sistemas automatizados podría no ser una solución tan simple y automática.

¿Es mejor? Tal vez.

¿Es posible? Todavía no tenemos una respuesta.

Por lo pronto el análisis crítico de la actividad siempre es una buena ocasión para aprender y replantearse los principios que tenemos por ciertos.

Inversiones predeciblemente malas: Evidencia del Venture Capital

La gran mayoría de los inversores coinciden en que resulta relativamente sencillo encontrar buenas ideas, pero es mucho más complicado hallar el equipo adecuado para llevarlas a cabo. A tal punto el talento es concebido como aspecto clave que se piensa que un equipo excelente puede convertir una idea mediocre en un gran éxito pero lo contrario es imposible.

El hecho de que esta idea esté tan extendida y forme parte de los principios de tantos inversores nos hace pensar que ha sido validada fielmente.

Pero ¿Es realmente así?

Diag Davenport ha publicado los resultados de una investigación bajo el título “Predictably Bad Investments: Evidence from venture capitalists”. El trabajo supuso el examen de unas 16 mil startups, que en conjunto suponían una inversión de USD 9 mil millones.

El problema del éxito

Lo primero que vale aclarar es que las VC no están consiguiendo malos resultados. Y esto puede ser parte del problema. En general, los fondos de venture capital ofrecen mejores resultados que el mercado y al parecer también superan a los inversores ángeles. Esto último es atribuido a una mayor cautela y mejores herramientas de análisis.

El problema es que el rendimiento de las VC se sostiene en gran medida por lo que se consigue con la mejor mitad de sus inversiones. El estudio apunta que si la mitad inferior fuera reemplazada por inversiones en el mercado se conseguiría una mejora de hasta un 41%. Davenport sostiene que esto demuestra que existe un gran margen de mejora.

Ideas destacadas

El trabajo tiene dos ideas destacables.

La primera es la que da título al estudio. El 50% de las inversiones de Venture Capital son predeciblemente malas.

No solo malas. Predeciblemente malas. Esto supone que el inversor contaba con la información suficiente para darse cuenta de que debía haber dejado de lado la startup.

La segunda idea es que una gran parte de estas malas decisiones están vinculadas a un excesivo enfoque en el talento por parte de los fondos VC, y el hecho de que estas organizaciones no son muy buenas a la hora de identificar el talento.

Es como armar un equipo de fútbol en base a los jugadores y no saber cuáles son los que realmente juegan bien. El foco en el emprendedor va en contra de un examen más exigente del negocio en sí. Y este parece ser el punto clave.

Errores predecibles

Para demostrar que los errores en las inversiones eran predecibles, Davenport desarrolló un algoritmo de análisis que identificó los signos de éxito para las startups. Algunos de los factores destacados para lograr obtener un EXIT y resultados exitosos fueron la educación de los fundadores y las inversiones recibidas previas.

Una vez más nada que no se haya señalado previamente, pero precisamente ese es el punto.

El modelo elaborado fue capaz de realizar predicciones de EXITS y resultados exitosos. Curiosamente no fue tan consistente en términos de retorno obtenido.

Aunque el modelo no sea perfecto, es justo señalar que una vez más las computadoras nos han demostrado que pueden superarnos.

El problema del talento

¿Y por qué se le da tanta importancia al fundador?

Davenport señala que la perspectiva de los inversores está dominada por la imagen de los fundadores de los grandes imperios modernos: Apple, Amazon, Google, etc.

Pero este no es un fenómeno nuevo. Desde hace décadas los grandes emprendedores han sido vistos como héroes del progreso.

Poco importan las nada raras ocasiones en las que sus proyectos han terminado en trágicos fracasos. Incluso estos fracasos son vistos como parte del proceso que lleva a la grandeza. Por supuesto que queda mucho mejor cuando los fracasos son anteriores y no posteriores.

La idea de que una sola inversión excepcional puede compensar un portfolio con un montón de apuestas con resultados inferiores es casi inseparable de la del genio del que todos se burlan hasta que demuestra que tenía razón. Es una mirada romántica, ambiciosa y que fundamentalmente no está equivocada.

Pero tampoco es completamente certera.

Solo queda mejorar

En la era de las computadoras, los fríos y precisos algoritmos nos demuestran que no tenemos la verdad en nuestras manos, que todavía nos queda mucho por aprender y mejorar.

Cuando los grandes maestros del Ajedrez y el Go fueron derrotados por las computadoras, las noticias recorrieron el mundo. Para muchos suponía el fin de una era, el cálculo vencía el ingenio humano. Mucho menos publicitado ha sido el hecho de que las computadoras se han transformado en herramientas de análisis extraordinarias. Han abierto las mentes y tirado abajo ciertas ideas previas, ofrecido opciones contraintuitivas.

Y los grandes jugadores de ajedrez y go han tomado ese conocimiento, lo han aprovechado y ahora demuestran de forma consistente un nivel superior, propio de una nueva era.

Is Latin America the “NEW CHINA”?

Early this year, SoftBank Innovation Fund was announced as “the largest-ever technology fund focused exclusively on the fast-growing Latin American market”.

This SoftBank decision makes total sense once we realize the economic development of Latin America in the last years. The region is now regarded as “the new China” when it comes to venture investing, business startups, and venture funds because of rapid growth taking place in the economy.

In fact, the Association for Private Capital Investment in Latin America stated that in the first half of 2019, venture funds investments in Latin America summed USD 2.6 Bn. across 160 transactions, which is a big improvement to the USD 2 Bn. raised in 463 transactions for 2018.

Just think about this fact:

Do you know that in 2016, all startups in Latin American just raised USD 500 million combined?

In other words, venture funding in Latin America in the first 6 months of 2019 summed more than 5 times the amount raised in the whole of 2016.

This clearly proves that:

Venture funding is taking over at a fast rate and the stats are there to prove it .
Rounds are getting bigger which shows how the market is maturing quickly.
More money was raised over fewer transactions which means that larger amounts of cash are being invested.

We’re now seeing a noticeable improvement in activities in the early stage from seed all the way to growth capital.

Big deals haven’t been left out of this as more and more investments have been rewarded like:

Colombian on-demand delivery unicorn Rappi raised USD 1 Bn. in April.
Gympass raised USD 300 million in June in Brazil.
Brazilian Real estate unicorn QuintoAndar raised USD 250 million in a Series D.

In recent years, Brazil has had the largest share of venture funding in Latin America but this has come to change because in the first 6 months of 2019, Colombia has surpassed Brazil in terms of venture dollars raised thanks to the recent Rappi’s investment round.

According to the Association for Private Capital Investment in Latin America, Colombian startups raised over USD 1.06 Bn. in venture funding in 13 transactions.

Now, compare this figure to the USD 989 million raised by 88 Brazilian startups over 88 deals and you would clearly see that the difference and margin is really large.

Next in the list is Mexico with USD 310 million invested in 34 deals. Collectively, the three markets made up 91.9 percent of the dollars invested and 84.9 percent of the deals during the first half of 2019.

Also, Kaszek Ventures founded in 2011, has recently closed two funds totaling USD 600 million in August as reported by Techcrunch. This made them one of the primary architects of the rapid boom startup financing and growth in Latin America.

In the words of Nicolas Szekasy, the co-founder and managing partner of Kaszek Ventures: “Every year it’s one step ahead. In the last few years, in particular, we have seen the pace accelerating and an increase in quality of the founding teams”.

2018´s Industry Recap and 2019 hottest industries for Venture Capital

2018 was a historical year. Last year saw the highest level of venture capital funding since 2000, the last year of the dot-com bubble.

According to data published by PitchBook and the National Venture Capital Association, Venture Capital firms spread roughly U$S 131 Bn. across 8.949 deals.
The previous record was a $100 million total notched in the year 2000.

More than a half of the total capital invested came from U$S 50 M (or more) deals. This boosted the average deal size and valuations across every investment stage and series last year. But because venture investors are paying so much up front, it’s becoming harder to profit.

382 fundings were U$S 100 M (or more) “megarounds,” up from 266 in 2017, with 184 of those coming from the U.S.
In terms of “unicorns,” companies with a valuation of at least U$S 1 Bn., the U.S. saw the creation of 53 new ones in 2018 versus 29 in 2017.
The fourth quarter alone saw 21 “unicorn births,” the highest ever recorded in a single quarter.

Venture capital investments in Asia rose 42% in 2018 versus 2017 with an 11% increase in the amount of money invested. Asia broke records with a 35% in “megarounds”, to 162, and a 60% jump in the creation of unicorns, with 40 coming of age during the year.

California, Massachusetts, and New York continue their dominance of venture investment activity, attracting 79% of total U.S. capital invested and 53% of the number of U.S. deals completed last year.
VC funding in the San Francisco region jumped 55%, to U$S 28 Bn., and New York funding reached U$S 13 Bn.
Venture Capital firms and investors point to increasing operating costs and higher valuations in those three states, signaling optimism for more investment in emerging ecosystems, which also have the benefits of a growing talent pool, maturing networks and ecosystems, and more favorable pricing.

VC Trends

Artificial intelligence, digital health and financial technology companies led the investment portfolios, with AI-related funding jumping 72%, to U$S 9.3 Bn.

Software continues to eat the world but life science activity has seen significant growth.
More than U$S 23 Bn. was invested across 1,308 deals in life science startups, a record high for both metrics.
Healthtech drew a significant portion of angel/seed investing in 2018Q4, highlighting investor interest in funding groundbreaking technologies to meet some of the biggest challenges and opportunities in the sector.

Rising Trend of Initial Coin Offerings

According to a report by Mangrove Capital, 204 ICOs have made a return of about 1,320 percent.

At the same time, investment banks and hedge funds have shown increasing interest in the digital currency with over 55 crypto-specific hedge funds. Before diving deep into why investors are showing greater interest in cryptocurrency, let’s take a look at what ICO is.

What is ICO?

Unlike conventional financial system, ICO or Initial Coin Offering is an alternative and unconventional way of crowdfunding. It has enabled a number of successful firms and projects to get the finance to start their business. New businesses and startups around the globe are getting millions of dollars in funds by issuing digital coins. The rising trend of digital currency has made people both worried and excited.

In ICO, the coins bought by investors are for businesses and marketplaces that are not developed yet. By purchasing these coins, they make a bet that a firm or startup will end up becoming successful and as a result, the coin will increase in value.

In average it takes about six months or a year to raise money with conventional venture capital (VC) system, but it is different when it comes to ICOs. In this token crowdfunding, you get to have a large crowd of engaging supporters who want to see you succeed. Not only do they campaign for you, but they are also your early adopters.

Growing Trend of ICO

Startups have raised more than 2 billion dollars since the start of 2017. It is a huge amount of funding, given the fact that not many people knew about it a few years ago. Businesses are making money via this mode of funding faster than usual.

In April this year, Gnosis (prediction market for Ethereum) managed to raise 12 million dollars in just ten minutes. In June, Mozilla’s founder raised 35 million dollars by selling Basic Attention Tokens in under 30 seconds for his new web browser startup called ‘Brave’.

ICOs have become the name of the game as they have left the venture capital market behind and are the biggest source of funding. It is a great option for those companies that are pursuing the application of blockchain technology.

Concerns by the Regulators

Despite the increasing trends of ICOs, regulators have shown serious concerns. They are warning investors that it is a high-risk investment.

Although, some coins value has dramatically increased, a very high volatility cannot be ignored. Some have also considered it a ‘speculative boom’, but that did not stop investment banks and hedge funds from showing their interest by making an investment in cryptocurrencies and ICOs.

Reason behind the Increasing Interest of Institutional Investors in ICOs

The digital currency market has made massive profits in the past one year or so. Initially, institutional investors were curious about what this is all about, but they started getting a hang of it gradually and became less apprehensive and more interested in this alternative investment. It is a kind of chain reaction that started with the rising interest among venture capitalists and now institutional investors, including mutual funds, investment banks, and hedge funds are following their lead. They have shown growing interest and are making an effort to estimate and grab the opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.

The reason why they are more interested in the new and unconventional currency is that it promises a higher return as compared to market averages. According to a fintech analytics firm, there have been at least 55 cryptocurrency hedge funds and a former manager at Fortress, Mike Novogratz, has recently announced a plan to use 500 million dollars for a new digital currency hedge fund. Blockchain Capital also made an announcement of raising 150 million dollars; a part of this fund will be for cryptocurrencies.

Goldman Sachs’ Approval

Goldman Sachs is planning to set up a bitcoin trading desk, as they believe that institutional investors are interested in cryptocurrency more than ever. The firm has reported it to be ‘a major milestone’. They believe that the investors need an over-the-counter brokerage platform where they can sell or buy as much cryptocurrency as they want. Goldman Sachs is of the opinion that it can take up this role, but there will be other issues, including market infrastructure and serious concern by the regulators.

If, however, ICOs becomes regulated, it will change the way how businesses raise money and will also impact the venture capital market.

A Useful Funding Tool for Less Segregated and Diverse Communities

Communities with a mixed ethnic background and more diversity are likely to come up with new ideas. According to a study by the Yale School of Management, having people in a community with different backgrounds is beneficial for Venture Capital (VC) firms as it leads to economic development and innovation.

In various countries around the globe, communities, universities, and businesses are pursuing diversification. Apart from the immediate benefit of getting fairness, having multiple points of view and diversity of experience is very useful for the overall performance of these sectors.

Effect of VC on Integrated Communities

The study also revealed that VC investment is more beneficial for ethnically integrated communities as compared to segregated communities. The effect of VC on the integrated communities was 30 percent higher as compared to segregated ones, especially in terms of creating more wealth, jobs, entrepreneurship opportunities, and facilitating innovative activities. The startup businesses create more value and job opportunities that eventually lead to economic growth.

In a diverse community, you get to interact with people having diverse backgrounds, which leads to getting access to more resources and information as compared to segregated communities. In the past, studies have shown that economic vitality is enhanced as a result of social interaction within a community.

Implications of Social Interaction for Venture Capital

The purpose of the study in question was to identify whether a social structure is vital for economic development or not. The VC was the focus of this study, given the fact that it is a useful financial tool for high growth businesses.

It was revealed that such relationships have significant implications when it comes to VC investments. VC investors put their money in new businesses that are in the close vicinity. They tend to rely on professional relationships and friendships for leads and information that cannot be received via cold calls or internet search.

VC investments were compared to aggregate income, employment, new businesses, and a number of patents. It was found that VC performed much better in less segregated and diverse areas, resulting in more patents, more jobs, and created more value.

Social interaction has benefited various communities. One of the many factors that led to high level of innovation in the United States is the increasing number of immigrants that bring diverse culture. When they interact with one another, it creates room for transferring valuable information and ideas, which leads to better economic outcomes. Besides, when people from different ethnic backgrounds live close to one another, it brings about healthy relationships and effective interactions that is favorable for the wider economy.

Diversity Leads to Innovative Thinking

Diversity is also very useful to promote innovative thinking that leads to success in the venture capital market. Any sector that does not have diversity or mixed race is very limited in innovative mindset and thought process. This results in similar thinking with not many innovative ideas. In addition to that, there is gender bias in the VC sector that restricts the overall growth prospects. It is a widely known fact that female founders represent the rapidly growing entrepreneurial group in the United States and their firm’s experience growth 1.5 times faster than the average growth rate in the market.

Providing Solution to Promote Innovative Decision Making

Despite the lack of diversity, it is quite likely that change is taking place gradually. An increasing number of entrepreneurs with diverse background are entering into the market. They are focused on providing a solution to the problem and make a profit in the process.

It has become really important to promote diversity in the communities and in societies at large so as to promote economic development and prosperity. Not only will it be beneficial for the venture capital industry, but it is also going to help the masses in getting equal opportunities in every sector.

The venture capital market has also derived benefits from diverse communities in terms of innovative thinking and plethora of useful information. To continue moving in the right direction, countries around the globe should embrace diversity in order to have successful businesses and create more job opportunities that will eventually bring economic prosperity in the long run.

Struggles of Entrepreneurs Based on Investors’ Perception

The first quarter of 2017 was closed with a total financing of $27 billion worldwide and the hot sectors in the world of Venture Capital (VC) have been fintech and technology. Despite the booming industry, VC has its own ups and downs.

Overlooking Entrepreneurs

Innovation has always been at the heart of the United States and the country has always encouraged entrepreneurship, yet, the ideas are often overlooked when it comes to immigrants and women in the sector.

Jerry Nemorin, the founder of LendStreet, is a fine example of that case. He initiated a company to support individuals who find it difficult to pay off their debt. He looks for people who are struggling with loan repayments, buy and consolidate their debt and refinance it at a fair rate of interest. Despite such a brilliant idea, he struggled with raising funds. According to him, investors recognize a defined pattern and the chances of funding the idea of a black person who is out to solve poor people’s problem are very low.

However, he is not alone. There are a large number of entrepreneurs with brilliant ideas who have been struggling with raising funds. Less than 1% investment in new startups goes to people of color, whereas, 10% investment goes to female entrepreneurs. Only 15% of the Unicorns that are making over $200 billion have made it to the real-world industries for day to day dealings.

Blind Spots – Another Cause Behind the Struggles

In an economy that promotes innovation, a lot of the best ideas are left out of the conversation due to blind spots.

Bias

Bias is the first blind spot that they face. Although, investors don’t do that intentionally, yet, it happens. Investors tend to invest in the ideas that come from people like them.

A study was conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research in which it was identified that applications that read ‘Greg’ got more calls as compared to the résumés that had the word ‘Lakisha’. This is not surprising, because only 5 percent of the partners in VC firms are female, whereas, people of colors are significantly lesser than that, i.e., less than 1 percent. Hence, the distribution of funding is largely based on the decision makers who are investors in this case.

Availability Bias

This is another blind spot that comes in the way of funding the brilliant ideas. Investors tend to invest in the ideas that are closest to them, or the last good idea they heard, versus the best. Almost 80 percent of the money goes to the firms that are situated within 30 miles of the investors.

Two-way Thinking

Lastly, most investors have two-way thinking when it comes to funding the ideas. Many people believe that they should focus on making a profit from a business, regardless of whether it is good or bad for the society at large, while engaging in philanthropy and nonprofit activities for the benefit of the society without paying much heed to financial sustainability.

Jerry’s idea supports this ideology, i.e., making a profit from a business that helps people in paying off their loan.

Overcoming the Blind Spots

Although, these blind spots are deep-rooted, yet, people can overcome these obstacles if they make an intentional effort to welcome new ideas. Kapor Capital intentionally invested in LendStreet to support Jerry’s idea. As a result, an initial investment of $500,000 turned into a portfolio of 40 million dollars, which enabled Jerry to refinance the financial statements of thousands of families in the U.S.

These ideas are available in abundance, but investors have to look closely and more carefully to fund new startups based on the merit so as to reap substantial benefits.

Interest Rates and Venture Capital

The Venture Capital market has experienced a massive growth in the last two decades. Startups prefer to get venture capital funding instead of raising debt. However, when it comes to economic growth, interest rates and Venture Capital (VC) go hand in hand. VC boost entrepreneurial activities and interest rates are helpful when it comes to risk-taking activities for the wellbeing of the economy.

If the interest rate is low, it serves as a fuel for VC investment, but at the same time, it discourages venture capitalists to put their money in riskier startups that are young, in other countries and in less popular industries.

Typically, VC firms invest their money after comparing the profits they achieve with profits that are available to the investors somewhere else. However, the relationship between interest rate and risk-taking can change based on which investor’s point of view is considered.

Effect of Interest Rate on non-traditional Capital

When we talk about short to medium term variations in the interest rate, it usually affects non-traditional capital source, including hedge funds and mutual funds. Unlike conventional Venture Capital investors, who keep their money invested for 10 years or so, unconventional investors can put their cash in different baskets and spread it across different assets classes. They can quickly decide where they should put their money in order to reduce the impact of interest rate variation.

Changing Effect of Interest Rate on VC Investments

Over the last three decades, federal rates have changed from as high as 16% in the early 80s to as low as 0.09%. However, VC has evolved from a small industry into a $100 billion per year asset class. Venture capitalists are investing a massive amount of money every year. Therefore, it is important to understand the changing effect of interest rate on VC investments.

Between the year 2000 and 2009, the federal fund rates and VC investments were parallel to each other. When the technology bubble was burst, the Federal Reserve adopted the strategy of decreasing interest rates so as to promote the economic growth. For venture capitalists, the environment was not as attractive as it was before and limited partners invested less in venture capital. The VC decreased with the decline in interest rates.

After the introduction of quantitative easing, this relationship between VC and interest rates ceased to exist and they became inversely proportional to each other.

Moreover, after the credit crunch, near-zero interest rate policy enabled financial institutions and brokerages to renew their balance sheets, settle their toxic assets, and revitalize their financial health. It also allowed the U.S. economy to recover from the after-effects of the crisis and enabled businesses to borrow capital at reasonable rates. During this phase of cheap money, technology sector, VC firms, and startups took advantage of the friendly valuation environment.

Federal Reserve’s Decision to Raise Interest Rates

By the end of this year, Fed plans to raise the interest rates. If the plan materializes, it will be the first time in the past nine years that the U.S. will experience the increase in rates, which will bring the era of zero interest rate to an end.

Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, indicated that the increase in interest rates will not be rapid.

It will be a gradual increase, which will not change the valuation environment of a startup and technology sector instantly. However, it will change along with a valuation environment of the stock market. The reason is simple; valuation multiples are indirectly correlated to interest rates, where in, the multiples decrease with the increase in rates.

It is important to observe the next move of the Fed and market reaction to changing interest rates, because it may affect the Venture Capital market.

ICOs Surpassed Early Stage Venture Capital Funding

New startups that raised funds through Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) have now surpassed the early stage VC Funding for internet firms.

But before diving into it, it is important to know what ICOs are.

What is Initial Coin Offerings?

This is another way of raising cash.

Cryptocurrency and blockchain startup companies raise capital through ICOs by selling tokens of investors in exchange for equity funds. It is somewhat the same as Initial Public Offering in which stocks are issued in exchange for equity. Just like crowdfunding, ICOs provide a way to get funds from users by enabling them to have a share of the business. They get digital currency in exchange for the money they invest in the business.

Rising Popularity of ICOs and VC Funding

ICOs have gained massive popularity in the last few months among blockchain and cryptocurrency startups. In April this year, the total capital raised via these offerings was around $100 million and in May, the amount went up to about $250 million. The month of June turned out to be the biggest surprise when the total funding exceeded $550 million. According to Goldman Sachs, it was the first time that it performed better than seed and angel venture capital funding. Early stage and angel venture capital funding was less than $300 million in June.

In July, the offerings were a little more than $300 million, whereas, early stage and angel funding was just a bit higher than $200 million.

Popularity Among the Celebrities

ICOs have become so popular that even the celebrities, including Paris Hilton and Floyd Mayweather, have started jumping on board. In fact, Paris has been involved in it for over a year now and also met the COO of Ethereum last year.

Total Value of ICOs in 2017

The total value raised by 92 ICOs in 2017 is $1.25 billion. This is a really good number, given the recent boom of such offerings in the VC sector. There are so many firms that have used these offerings to raise money. For example, Tezos managed to get the capital of over $200 million by creating a new blockchain, whereas, another firm, Bancor secured $153 million via ICO.

Criticism and Scrutiny from Regulators

Despite the boom, this phenomenon has been under severe criticism and scrutiny from regulators and other authorities. For example, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released a statement in which it was mentioned that these offerings are exposed to money laundering and other terrorist financing risks, because the nature of these transactions remains anonymous. Another concern raised by the MAS was the collection of large amounts of capital in such a short time frame, which makes ICO vulnerable to high-level risk.

On the other hand, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) said in July this year that the security law of the U.S. will be applicable to this cryptocurrency. The experts are also showing concern over its legitimacy. They have highlighted that the sale of a cryptographic token makes the investor entitled to a certain share of profit in the firm, which can be considered as a violation of financial rules and regulations. The People’s Bank of China and a lot of other government departments have released a joint statement that people and firms that have raised money through ICO should also make arrangements to return that capital.

Firms Facing Increasing Risk of Getting Hacked

Despite all the boom and criticism, the risk of ICOs cannot be ruled out. A clear example of this is CoinDash that initiated an ICO, but ended up getting hacked in July. As a result, all of its funds got stolen. Although, it has gained popularity in the past few months, yet, the risks cannot be ruled out entirely.

Future of ICOs

The Chief Information Officer of UBS, Oliver Bussman, raised his concern and said that strict regulations and measures, as applied to IPO businesses, are required in ICO to safeguard the interest of investors. However, he is quite confident about this new mode of raising funds and expressed that such offerings will continue to happen in future. He said that as a new business model that is benefiting the blockchain technology, ICO will continue to sustain by combining hybrid equity ownership/currency and crowd funding.

Wave of Change in the VC Sector

Every day many venture capitalists invest in startups with the hope that it will be yet another unicorn. Venture capitalists are a type of investors who are also futurologists. They invest in new businesses with an anticipation that it will turn out to be the next Facebook or Uber and their investment will multiply several times.

A perfect example of such investment is the one made by Mark Tluszcz in Skype. In 2001, he invested $2.5 million and now is worth $250 million.

Investors have the chance of winning big or losing all of their investment. Tluszcz also shared his experience stating that 50 percent of the startups they invest in, end up as a failure; 20 percent of these investments only make as far as returning their investment money and another 20 percent increase their stake three times. It is the remaining 10 percent that makes it big, he added, and keep the venture capital (VC) firms going.

A Wave of Change in the VC Sector

Keeping all of this in mind, it is an undeniable truth that VC firms have undergone massive changes over the last two decades.

In the UK, the amount of investment by venture capitalists has increased from £453 million to £1961 million between 2011 and 2016. A number of these firms are filled with entrepreneurs who are passionate about building a business and not just a career.

Lack of Diversity

Despite all the changes, there is still a lack of diversity in the sector. Debbie Wosskow, a VC investor who was once an entrepreneur, came face to face with the harsh reality that 95 percent of all the investments made by venture capitalists go to male-led startups and most of these investments are made by male venture capitalists.

According to a research in Harvard Business Review, when it comes to female entrepreneurs, the focal point of venture capitalists is always toward potential losses, but with male founders, they look at it from the perspective of potential gains. Regardless of what the reason is, things have started to change in the VC sector.

Wind of Change — A Step Toward Revolutionizing the VC Sector

According to a venture capitalist, Suranga Chandratillake, said that those who present their ideas before a group of investors have to sell their idea of making it big. He further said that investors need a convincing idea that has a potential to generate good profits and not a presentation that just talks about becoming another unicorn like Uber. Investors need to see that entrepreneurs are not just into organic growth; in fact, they should be willing to take risks of revolutionizing the entire sector with a proper plan and potential to bring the right people in their team.

Self-awareness — A Trait of Successful Entrepreneurs

Another venture capitalist, Jillian Manus, believes the best ideas come from those startups where one partner has a sales and operation background whereas the other one is into technology. They come together as a team to sell their idea along with a well-devised plan of how they will achieve their goals. She added that a founder must be honest with exciting ideas as the most important question she asks the entrepreneurs is to tell how they failed. Those who say they have never failed are either hiding the truth or they lack self-awareness.

To secure an investment, a founder of a new startup should show that they have learned from their mistakes and be honest about it as it enables them to identify a problem ahead of time. All in all, venture capitalists do believe that honesty is the best policy when it comes to investing in new startups, because if an entrepreneur needs a venture capital, he or she must tend to scale up and expand their business quickly.